Busy day Saturday, off to Nottingham to watch the Hatters take on Notts County and on a fairly tight time schedule and not really expecting a call from Matt to talk about shares as he ponders if the stock market is really a place for him rather than leaving his spare money, the stuff he definitely does not intend to use for the immediate few years, safely tucked away in the bank/building society. I must admit after my last discussion with Matt just over a week ago, I rather felt that he had almost already decided that it would not be for him.
Anyway, Matt is today all fired up with enthusiasm as the phantom portfolio I am using to teach him a little about the markets with is up by about 3% since we opened it. Oh no, I think to myself, from “don’t like the risk of losing money” Matt has now turned to “do like the idea of making easy money”. Ok, I tell Matt, not a bad start but it’s really little more than noise in the grand scheme of things. Investment, particularly in neglected/value stocks is not about performance over 9 days, 9 weeks: to my view, sticking with 9 you are more realistically looking at 9 months to a couple or so years. Of course, this unwelcome damp cloth place on Matt’s smouldering enthusiasm did not go down well as I could tell by Matt’s hesitant response “well, I sort of thought that things looked good, don’t you”?
Well Matt, let’s look at the very choppy waters that these six stocks have to sail through over the coming five weeks. The dodgy time for stocks are Matt is usually when they release either trading updates, interim results and final results. Why do I say dodgy? It’s then that they give us an account of how current trading is going; historic performance does not really matter that much as it’s all generally built into the share price; what the market really wants to know is how are things going now, what does the order book look like?
Now for each of these six stocks I have discussed their fundamentals on my Stockwhittler site in the past, so Matt, check back there if you feel the need. However, do look at the following schedule of news release and brace yourself; the current trading will most probably be in-line i.e. no shocks and as expected. However, it could well be a touch negative or hopefully a touch positive.
The dates to put in your diary Matt are:
3/11/16: Final results (year-end) for beaten up Gattaca; yes, what a silly name for a company; what was wrong with Matchtech? Also, yield > 6%
17/11/16: Interim (1/2 year) results for Norcros; I like the company but the market seems scared by the pension deficit which I see as well mitigated. The average age of those collecting pension from the fund is late 70’s so without wishing to sound overly callous, it’s overall liability will shrink fairly rapidly in the coming few years. Just one little negative phrase and the shares will fall a few pence. Norcros is a strange one to get your head round in terms of basic numbers; the yield is just about the same as PE; crazily undervalued or the territory for a fool?
29/11/16: Final results for Topps Tiles: the market was spooked by their last trading update; me, I thought it was fine for the medium term but that’s what investing is about, taking a view.
30/11/16: Telford Homes Interim Results: I really like this share but the market seems to be very suspicious of it and it was heavily brexited back in the summer. Am I right, well very positive noises from the company suggest all is well but we will have to wait and see: yield about 5%.
01/12/16: Character Group Final Results: certainly not loved over the last 12 months but has Mr market got it wrong? I suspect Mr Market has got it wrong but there again, just my view!
08/12/16: Waterman interim dividend: ok nice to have Matt but you have to remember that the share price invariably falls by the same amount as the dividend paid on ex-dividend day.
Do remember Matt, that I am not always right with my perception of a company; like all investors, I certainly make my fair share of purchases that in retrospect don’t head in the desired direction but that’s investing. When I get things wrong, I try to close my position as soon as I hit the appropriate stop loss but when I am right I try to be brave and ride the wave as high as I reasonably can.
So, Matt, that’s a little bit of interest and worry for you over the coming weeks; your theoretical 3% gain could so easily be a -10% loss or more within five weeks with all of this news about to be released: could you sleep easy with that Matt?
I have to dash for a train now as a couple of foaming pints of ale await me in Nottingham; catch you soon once the news flow begins
Welcome to my Blog Page - I hope you find my whittling on to be of some interest. I am a private investor who is happy to share thoughts on the market and individual stocks. Please remember that I am definitely not offering tips or investment advice.